Project Overview
This research project analyzes crime rates in the 10 largest US cities over the past decade (2014-2024). The study identifies key causal factors influencing crime rates and provides insights into trends and patterns.
Key Findings
- Average crime rate changed from 35.6 per 1,000 in 2014 to 35.8 per 1,000 in 2024
- Population density emerged as the strongest predictor of crime rates
- Education levels showed significant inverse correlation with crime rates
- 6 cities showed decreasing crime rates, while 4 cities showed increasing rates
Top 10 US Cities by Population
- New York, NY - 8,258,035
- Los Angeles, CA - 3,820,914
- Chicago, IL - 2,664,452
- Houston, TX - 2,314,157
- Phoenix, AZ - 1,650,070
- Philadelphia, PA - 1,550,542
- San Antonio, TX - 1,495,295
- San Diego, CA - 1,388,320
- Dallas, TX - 1,302,868
- Jacksonville, FL - 985,843
City Comparison
Crime Trends (2014-2024)
Trend Summary
Decreasing Crime (6 cities)
- Los Angeles: -5.4%
- Houston: -5.4%
- Philadelphia: -3.4%
- San Antonio: -0.9%
- Dallas: -8.3%
- Jacksonville: -0.2%
Increasing Crime (4 cities)
- New York: +11.3%
- Chicago: +12.5%
- Phoenix: +2.2%
- San Diego: +12.3%
Causal Factors
Top 5 Causal Factors
| Rank | Factor | Correlation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Population Density | +0.650 |
| 2 | Education Rate | -0.308 |
| 3 | Unemployment Rate | -0.030 |
| 4 | Median Income | -0.024 |
| 5 | Poverty Rate | +0.024 |
Research Paper
Causal Analysis of Crime Rates in America's Largest Cities: A Decade of Data (2014-2024)
This comprehensive study examines crime trends and their underlying causes across the ten largest cities in the United States over the past decade.
Using data from multiple sources including FBI UCR, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Census data, we identify five primary causal factors that significantly influence crime rates: population density, education levels, unemployment rates, median income, and poverty rates.